Think Home Prices are Going to Fall? Think Again!
Friday FOOTEnotes
Friday, July 22, 2022
From Keeping Current Matters
Over the last two years, the rate of home prices appreciated at a dramatic pace. While that led to incredible equity gains for homeowners, it’s also caused some buyers to wonder if home prices will fall. It’s important to know the housing market isn’t a bubble about to burst, and home price growth is supported by strong market fundamentals.
To understand why price declines are unlikely, it’s important to explore what caused home prices to rise so much recently, and where experts say home prices are headed. Here’s what you need to know.
Home Prices Rose Significantly in Recent Years
The graph below uses the latest data from CoreLogic to illustrate the rise in home prices over the past year and a half. The gray bars represent the dramatic increase in the rate of home price appreciation in 2021. The blue bars show home prices are still rising in 2022, but not as quickly:
You might be asking: why did home prices climb so much last year? It’s because there were more buyers than there were homes for sale. That imbalance put upward pressure on home prices because demand was extremely high, and supply was record low.
Where Experts Say Prices Will Go from Here
While housing inventory is increasing and buyer demand is softening today, there’s still a shortage of homes available for sale. That’s why the market is seeing ongoing price appreciation. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains it like this:
. . .we’re still well below normal levels of inventory and that’s why even with the pullback in demand, we still see house prices appreciating. While there is more inventory, it’s still not enough.
As a result, experts are projecting a more moderate rate of home price appreciation this year, which means home prices will continue rising, but at a slower pace. That doesn’t mean prices are going to fall. As Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, says:
The current home price growth rate is unsustainable, and higher mortgage rates coupled with more inventory will lead to slower home price growth but unlikely declines in home prices.
In other words, even with higher mortgage rates, moderating buyer demand, and more homes for sale, experts say home price appreciation will slow, but prices won’t decline.
If you’re planning to buy a home, that means you shouldn’t wait for home prices to drop to make your purchase. Instead, buying today means you can get ahead of future price increases, and benefit from the rise in prices in the form of home equity.
Bottom Line
Home prices skyrocketed in recent years because there was more demand than supply. As the market shifts, experts aren’t forecasting a drop in prices, just a slowdown in the rate of price growth. To understand what’s happening with home prices in our area, let’s connect today.
When most people think about buying a home, they imagine house hunting in the spring or summer. And it’s true — those warmer months tend to bring out the largest number of buyers and sellers. But here’s something many don’t realize: fall and winter can actually be some of the best seasons to purchase a home. If you’re thinking about making a move, the cooler months may offer you some real advantages.
1. Less Competition Means Better Opportunities
During the spring and summer, the housing market is buzzing. More buyers are actively searching, which can lead to bidding wars and multiple-offer situations. But once autumn arrives — and especially as winter sets in — many buyers pause their search. Holiday travel, school schedules, and colder weather naturally reduce the number of people actively looking.
Less competition = more leverage.
With fewer buyers in the market, you’re less likely to face pressure to rush your decisions or stretch your budget just to “win” a house. You can take your time, compare options, and negotiate more confidently.2. More Negotiating Power — Including Offers Below Asking
Because the buyer pool is smaller this time of year, sellers tend to be more open to negotiation. If a home has been on the market for a while or the seller is motivated to close by year-end, you may have the opportunity to make an offer under the asking price — something that can be harder to do during peak season.
Sellers may also be more willing to offer credits toward repairs, pay closing costs, or adjust timelines to fit your needs. In other words, your dollar can stretch further in the fall and winter market.
3. Interest Rates Often Dip Toward the End of the Year
Another major advantage? Interest rates sometimes ease at the end of the year. While rates fluctuate and are always
Work With Us
