With all the headlines and talk in the media about the shift in the housing market, you might be thinking this is a housing bubble. It’s only natural for those thoughts to creep in that make you think it could be a repeat of what took place in 2008. But the good news is, there’s concrete data to show why this is nothing like the last time.
There’s Still a Shortage of Homes on the Market Today, Not a Surplus
For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to fall dramatically. Supply has increased since the start of this year, but there’s still a shortage of inventory available overall, primarily due to almost 15 years of underbuilding homes.
The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) to show how the months’ supply of homes available now compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 3.2-months’ supply at the current sales pace, which is significantly lower than the last time. There just isn’t enough inventory on the market for home prices to come crashing down like they did last time, even though some overheated markets may experience slight declines.
Mortgage Standards Were Much More Relaxed Back Then
During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. Running up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home.
Back then, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices. Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies.
The graph below uses Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to help tell this story. In that index, the higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage. The lower the number, the harder it is. In the latest report, the index fell by 5.4%, indicating standards are tightening.
This graph also shows just how different things are today compared to the spike in credit availability leading up to the crash. Tighter lending standards over the past 14 years have helped prevent a scenario that would lead to a wave of foreclosures like the last time.
The Foreclosure Volume Is Nothing Like It Was During the Crash
Another difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been lower since the crash, largely because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data from ATTOM Data Solutions to help paint the picture of how different things are this time:
Not to mention, homeowners today have options they just didn’t have in the housing crisis when so many people owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. Today, many homeowners are equity rich. That equity comes, in large part, from the way home prices have appreciated over time. According to CoreLogic:
The total average equity per borrower has now reached almost $300,000, the highest in the data series.
Rick Sharga, Executive VP of Market Intelligence at ATTOM Data, explains the impact this has:
Very few of the properties entering the foreclosure process have reverted to the lender at the end of the foreclosure. . . . We believe that this may be an indication that borrowers are leveraging their equity and selling their homes rather than risking the loss of their equity in a foreclosure auction.
This goes to show homeowners are in a completely different position this time. For those facing challenges today, many have the option to use their equity to sell their house and avoid the foreclosure process.
Bottom Line
If you’re concerned we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, the graphs above should help alleviate your fears. Concrete data and expert insights clearly show why this is nothing like the last time.
-KCM Crew
When most people think about buying a home, they imagine house hunting in the spring or summer. And it’s true — those warmer months tend to bring out the largest number of buyers and sellers. But here’s something many don’t realize: fall and winter can actually be some of the best seasons to purchase a home. If you’re thinking about making a move, the cooler months may offer you some real advantages.
1. Less Competition Means Better Opportunities
During the spring and summer, the housing market is buzzing. More buyers are actively searching, which can lead to bidding wars and multiple-offer situations. But once autumn arrives — and especially as winter sets in — many buyers pause their search. Holiday travel, school schedules, and colder weather naturally reduce the number of people actively looking.
Less competition = more leverage.
With fewer buyers in the market, you’re less likely to face pressure to rush your decisions or stretch your budget just to “win” a house. You can take your time, compare options, and negotiate more confidently.2. More Negotiating Power — Including Offers Below Asking
Because the buyer pool is smaller this time of year, sellers tend to be more open to negotiation. If a home has been on the market for a while or the seller is motivated to close by year-end, you may have the opportunity to make an offer under the asking price — something that can be harder to do during peak season.
Sellers may also be more willing to offer credits toward repairs, pay closing costs, or adjust timelines to fit your needs. In other words, your dollar can stretch further in the fall and winter market.
3. Interest Rates Often Dip Toward the End of the Year
Another major advantage? Interest rates sometimes ease at the end of the year. While rates fluctuate and are always
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